Abstract Round Up: 11/07-11/15


A contribution to attribution of recent global warming by out-of-sample Granger causality analysis

ABSTRACT:  The topic of attribution of recent global warming is usually faced by studies performed through global climate models (GCMs). Even simpler econometric models have been applied to this problem, but they led to contrasting results. In this article, we show that a genuine predictive approach of Granger analysis leads to overcome problems shown by these models and to obtain a clear signal of linear Granger causality from greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the global temperature of the second half of the 20th century. [more]

Abstract Round Up: 10/31-11/06

Correlation between climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing and its implication for the “climate trap”

ABSTRACT:  Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing are dominant uncertain properties of the global climate system. Their estimates based on the inverse approach are interdependent as historical temperature records constrain possible combinations. Nevertheless, many literature projections of future climate are based on the probability density of climate sensitivity and an independent aerosol forcing without considering the interdependency of such estimates. [more]